Tun daga 2020, wanda ya shafi ci gaban buƙatun ƙasashen waje, raguwar farashin jiragen ruwa, cunkoso a tashar jiragen ruwa, dabaru da sauran abubuwa, jigilar jigilar kayayyaki ta ƙasa da ƙasa tana ƙaruwa, kuma kasuwa ta zama "rashin daidaituwa".Tun farkon wannan shekara, jigilar kaya na tekun kwantena na kasa da kasa tun lokacin babban girgiza da wasu gyara.Bayanai daga kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki ta Shanghai sun nuna cewa, a ranar 18 ga Nuwamba, 2022, an rufe ma'aunin jigilar kayayyaki na Shanghai da maki 1306.84, wanda ya ci gaba da koma baya tun daga rubu'i na uku.A cikin kwata na uku, a matsayin lokacin kololuwar al'ada na cinikin jigilar kayayyaki a duniya, farashin jigilar kayayyaki bai nuna babban ci gaba ba, amma ya nuna raguwa sosai.Menene dalilan da suka haifar da wannan, kuma yaya kuke ganin yanayin kasuwa a gaba?

Faɗuwar buƙatun yana shafar tsammanin
A halin yanzu, ci gaban GDP na manyan kasashe masu karfin tattalin arziki na duniya ya ragu matuka, kuma dalar Amurka ta kara yawan kudin ruwa cikin sauri, lamarin da ya haifar da tsauraran matakan hada-hadar kudi a duniya.Haɗe da tasirin cutar ta COVID-19 da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, haɓakar buƙatun waje ya yi kasala har ma ya fara raguwa.A sa'i daya kuma, kalubalen ci gaban tattalin arzikin cikin gida ya karu.Haɓaka tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya yana sanya matsin lamba kan kasuwancin duniya da buƙatar masu amfani.
Daga yanayin tsarin samfur, tun daga 2020, kayan rigakafin cutar da ke wakilta ta yadudduka, magunguna da kayan aikin likita da “tattalin arzikin gida” da ke wakilta ta kayan daki, kayan gida, samfuran lantarki da wuraren nishaɗi sun shaida haɓakar saurin amfani.Haɗe tare da halaye na "tattalin arzikin gida" kayan masarufi, irin su ƙananan ƙima, babban girma da babban akwati, yawan haɓakar fitar da kwantena ya kai wani sabon mataki.
Sakamakon canje-canje a cikin yanayin waje, fitar da kayayyaki keɓe keɓe da samfuran "tattalin arzikin gida" ya ragu tun daga 2022. Tun daga Yuli, haɓakar haɓakar ƙimar fitarwar kwantena da ƙarar fitarwa ya ma koma baya.
Ta fuskar kididdigar kayayyaki a Turai da Amurka, manyan masu siye, dillalai da masana'antun na duniya sun sami wani tsari daga ƙarancin wadata, rarrabuwar kayyayaki na duniya, kayayyaki kan hanyar zuwa manyan kayayyaki cikin sama da shekaru biyu kacal.A cikin Amurka, alal misali, wasu manyan dillalai irin su Wal-Mart, Best Buy da Target suna da matsala mai tsanani a cikin kaya, musamman a TVS, kayan dafa abinci, kayan daki da tufafi."Babban kaya, mai wuyar siyarwa" ya zama matsala ta gama gari ga masu siyar da kaya a Turai da Amurka, kuma wannan canjin yana rage ƙwarin gwiwar shigo da kayayyaki ga masu siye, dillalai da masana'anta.
Dangane da batun fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje, daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2021, sakamakon yaduwar annobar da duniya ta yi fama da shi, da yadda kasar Sin ta yi niyya tare da yin rigakafi da shawo kan cutar, kayayyakin da kasar Sin ke fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje sun ba da muhimmin taimako ga farfado da tattalin arzikin dukkan kasashe.Kason da kasar Sin ta samu na yawan fitar da kayayyaki a duniya ya karu daga kashi 13% a shekarar 2019 zuwa kashi 15 cikin dari a karshen shekarar 2021. Tun daga shekarar 2022, karfin da aka kulla a baya a Amurka, Jamus, Japan, Koriya ta Kudu da kudu maso gabashin Asiya ya farfado cikin sauri.Tare da tasirin "warkewa" da wasu masana'antu ke yi, rabon kayayyakin da kasar Sin ke fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje ya fara raguwa, wanda kuma a fakaice yana shafar karuwar bukatar cinikin kwantena na kasar Sin.

Ana fitar da ingantacciyar ƙarfin aiki yayin da buƙatu ke raguwa, wadatar ruwan teku tana ƙaruwa.
A matsayinsa na jagoran ci gaba da yawan jigilar kayayyaki na jigilar kaya a duniya, hanyar Gabas ta Gabas-Amurka kuma muhimmin “maki ce mai toshewa” hanyar jigilar kaya ta duniya.Sakamakon karuwar bukatar Amurka daga 2020 zuwa 2021, jinkirin haɓaka kayan aikin tashar jiragen ruwa da kuma rashin girman girman jirgin ruwa, tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Amurka sun sami cunkoso mai tsanani.
Alal misali, jiragen ruwa a tashar jiragen ruwa na Los Angeles sun taɓa yin amfani da matsakaita na fiye da kwanaki 10, kuma wasu ma sun yi layi na fiye da kwanaki 30 kadai.Bugu da kari, hauhawar farashin kaya da kuma bukatu mai karfi ya jawo dimbin jiragen ruwa da kwalaye daga wasu hanyoyin zuwa wannan hanya, wanda kuma a fakaice ya kara tabarbarewar kayayyaki da bukatar sauran hanyoyin, da zarar ya haifar da rashin daidaiton kwantena daya da wahala. samu” da kuma “gida daya yana da wahalar samu”.
Yayin da bukatar ta ragu kuma martanin tashar jiragen ruwa ya zama da gangan, kimiyya da tsari, cunkoso a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na ketare ya inganta sosai.Hannun kwantena na duniya sannu a hankali sun dawo zuwa tsarin asali, kuma adadi mai yawa na kwantena na ketare sun dawo, yana da wahala a koma ga tsohon al'amari na "kwangi ɗaya yana da wuyar samu" da "kwangi ɗaya yana da wuyar samu".
Tare da ingantuwar rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da bukatu a kan manyan hanyoyin, adadin lokacin da manyan kamfanonin jiragen ruwa na duniya su ma ya fara karuwa sannu a hankali, kuma ana ci gaba da fitar da ingancin jigilar jiragen ruwa.Daga Maris zuwa Yuni 2022, manyan kamfanonin layin dogo suna sarrafa kusan kashi 10 cikin 100 na ƙarfinsu ba tare da aiki ba saboda saurin raguwar nauyin manyan layukan, amma ba su dakatar da ci gaba da raguwar farashin kaya ba.
A sa'i daya kuma, dabarun gasa na kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki su ma sun fara bambanta.Wasu masana'antu sun fara ƙarfafa zuba jari na ababen more rayuwa na kan teku, sayan wasu dillalan kwastam da kamfanonin dabaru, da hanzarta sake fasalin dijital;Wasu kamfanoni suna ƙarfafa sauye-sauyen sabbin jiragen ruwa na makamashi, suna bincika sabbin tasoshin makamashi waɗanda ke amfani da man LNG, methanol da wutar lantarki.Wasu kamfanoni kuma sun ci gaba da kara odar sabbin jiragen ruwa.
Sakamakon sauye-sauyen tsari na kwanan nan a kasuwa, rashin kwarin gwiwa yana ci gaba da yaduwa, kuma adadin jigilar jigilar kayayyaki na duniya yana raguwa cikin sauri, kuma kasuwar tabo ta fadi da sama da 80% a kololuwarta dangane da kololuwar.Masu ɗaukar kaya, masu jigilar kaya da masu jigilar kaya don wasan ƙara ƙarfi.Matsayin mai ƙarfi da ɗanɗano ya fara matsar da ribar masu gaba.A lokaci guda kuma, farashin tabo da kuma farashin dogon lokaci na wasu manyan hanyoyin suna jujjuya su.Wasu masana'antu sun ba da shawarar neman sake yin shawarwari kan farashi mai tsayi, wanda zai iya haifar da wani keta kwangilar sufuri.Duk da haka, a matsayin yarjejeniyar da ta dace da kasuwa, ba shi da sauƙi a gyara yarjejeniyar, har ma yana fuskantar babbar haɗarin diyya.

Me game da yanayin farashin nan gaba
Daga halin da ake ciki a halin yanzu, jigilar kaya na teku na gaba ya ragu ko kunkuntar.
Ta fuskar bukatu, saboda takurewar kuɗaɗen kuɗi na duniya, sakamakon haɓakar kuɗin ribar dalar Amurka, da raguwar buƙatu da kashe-kashe da ake samu sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Turai da Amurka, da yawan hajoji da raguwar kayayyaki. Bukatun shigo da kayayyaki a Turai da Amurka da sauran abubuwan da ba su da kyau, buƙatun jigilar kwantena na iya ci gaba da kasancewa cikin baƙin ciki.Duk da haka, raguwar da aka samu a kwanan nan daga kididdigar bayanan masu amfani da Amurka da kuma dawo da kayayyakin da Sin ke fitarwa kamar kananan kayan aikin gida na iya rage raguwar bukatu.
Ta fuskar samar da kayayyaki, za a kara samun saukin cunkoso na tashoshin jiragen ruwa na ketare, ana sa ran za a kara inganta karfin jigilar kayayyaki, da saurin isar da kayayyaki a cikin kwata na hudu, don haka kasuwar na fuskantar babban kalubale. wuce gona da iri matsa lamba.
Koyaya, a halin yanzu, manyan kamfanonin layin layi sun fara haɓaka sabbin matakan dakatarwa, kuma haɓakar ingantacciyar ƙarfi a kasuwa yana da ƙarancin sarrafawa.A sa'i daya kuma, rikici tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine da hauhawar farashin makamashi a duniya ma sun kawo rashin tabbas da dama ga yanayin kasuwa a nan gaba.Gabaɗaya shari'a, masana'antar kwantena ta huɗu har yanzu tana cikin matakin "ebb tide", tsammanin tsammanin har yanzu rashin samun goyan baya mai ƙarfi, jigilar jigilar kaya gabaɗaya matsa lamba, raguwa ko kunkuntar.
Daga ra'ayi na kamfanonin sufuri, wajibi ne a yi shirye-shirye masu dacewa don tasirin "ebb tide" a cikin masana'antar kwantena.Zuba jarin jirgin ruwa zai iya zama mai hankali, mafi kyawun fahimtar ƙimar jirgin na yanzu da tasirin jigilar kayayyaki na kasuwa, zaɓi mafi kyawun damar saka hannun jari;Ya kamata mu mai da hankali ga sababbin canje-canje a cikin yarjejeniyar RCEP, cinikayyar yanki, jigilar kaya da sarkar sanyi don kusanci masu kaya da kuma haɓaka ƙarfin sabis ɗin haɗin gwiwarmu na ƙarshe zuwa ƙarshe da fa'idodin gasa.Yi daidai da halin da ake ciki na haɗin kai na albarkatun tashar jiragen ruwa, ƙarfafa haɗin kai tare da tashoshin jiragen ruwa, da inganta haɓakar haɗin gwiwar rassan firamare da sakandare.A lokaci guda, haɓaka canjin dijital da haɓaka kasuwanci da haɓaka ikon sarrafa dandamali.
Daga ra'ayi na masu jigilar kaya, ya kamata mu mai da hankali sosai ga sauye-sauyen tsarin amfani da ketare kuma mu yi ƙoƙari don ƙarin umarni na fitarwa.Za mu sarrafa hauhawar farashin albarkatun ƙasa yadda ya kamata, yadda ya kamata mu sarrafa farashin ƙirƙira na samfuran da aka gama, inganta haɓaka samfuran fitarwa da sabbin fasahohi, da haɓaka ƙarin ƙimar kayan da ake fitarwa.Kula da hankali sosai ga tallafin manufofin kasa don haɓaka kasuwancin waje da haɗa kai cikin yanayin ci gaba na kasuwancin e-commerce na kan iyaka.
Daga mahangar mai jigilar kaya, ya zama dole a sarrafa farashin babban birnin, da inganta dukkan iyawar sabis na kayan aiki, da kuma hana matsalar sarkar kayayyaki da ka iya haifar da rugujewar sarkar babban birnin.